Election Insights: Why we’re cruising towards a Tory minority


After weeks of Tory lead, most conventional polls now have the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a neck-and-neck battle for first place. But Polly is the only pollster definitively projecting a Conservative victory on Sept. 20. This week, the artificial intelligence engine was forecasting the Tories to win 141 seats in the House of Commons against 134 for the Liberals. That would firmly place Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives in minority government territory. If the party’s fortunes hold, they will capture a share of the House of Commons that would be almost exactly the same as in 2008, when Stephen Harper won his second consecutive minority government. What’s more, according to Polly’s analysis, the entire length of Election 44 so far has basically been a story of Liberals progressively losing support to the Conservatives. While virtually every conventional Canadian poll has shown Liberals and Conservatives jousting for the lead, Polly has observed an election campaign in which virtually every morning saw Canadians awake to a country that was slightly less Liberal and slightly more Conservative.

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