Dr. Roger Higgs: Global Warming and Cooing for last 2,000 Years Mimic Sun’s Magnetic Activity, Not CO2


Below is a 500-word abstract for Geological Society (London) virtual conference ‘Climate Change in the Geological Record’, 26-27th May 2021 — written by Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, UK (submitted April 8, 2021). Most scientists urge shifting to nuclear and/or renewable energy, amply justified by air pollution, dwindling fossil fuels and, many believe, global warming by CO2. For the last 2,000 years Earth’s average surface temperature (by proxies and post-1750 thermometers) closely matches solar-magnetic output (SMO) (ice-core proxies, sunspots, neutron detectors, magnetometers), after applying a ~100-year temperature lag. Both fell for 1,000 years from ~400AD into the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1400-1900). Then SMO surged from ~1700AD (Maunder Minimum), the largest rise in 9,000 (sic) years, growing 130% in the 20th Century alone, reaching the strongest solar ‘grand maximum’ (1937-2004; peak 1991). (Contrast <0.5% parallel increase in total solar irradiance [TSI].) Temperature surged too, from the final LIA nadir ~1830 (Berkeley-HadCRUT data) to 2016, the largest warming (~1.3C) and highest peak in 2,000 years. The temperature and SMO graphs share two further characteristics, besides overall ‘hockey-stick’ shape: (A) multi-decadal up-down ‘sawteeth’, with superimposed 3-to-20-year sawteeth (longer than ENSO); and (B) surge amplitude about twice the 1,000-year decline. Three simple cross-matches confirm the ~100-year lag: (1) LIA’s three coldest peaks (~1470, 1610, 1830) mimic three SMO extreme minima (~1330, 1450, 1700); (2) the Sun’s 310AD peak (second-highest) aligns with a prominent ~450AD warm peak (with abundant geological-archaeological evidence for a ~3-metre sea-level rise in <100 years); (3) successive HadCRUT sawteeth cusps at 1910, 1945 and 1975 correspond to 1810, 1840 and 1890 (sunspot 30-year-smoothed chart). In contrast, CO2 has six mismatches with the 2,000-year temperature profile: (1) CO2 was trendless before its modern rise from ~1850 by industrial emissions; (2) warming began (~1830, above) before CO2’s rise; (3) CO2’s rise was continuous (except seasonal sawteeth [Keeling Curve] and slight decline 1940-44), unlike very punctuated warming (supra-annual sawteeth, above; 30-year coolings 1880-1910, 1945-75; pause 1998-2013); (4) CO2 has steadily accelerated from 1944, but warming has not (after its 1975 resumption); (5) the 1975-2016 warming episode had the same gradient as the previous one (1910-45), while the CO2 gradient increased fourfold; (6) the Berkeley-HadCRUT dataset includes solar frequencies, unlike CO2. Evidently, CO2 and temperature are uncorrelated.

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