Assuming current scenario holds, ‘we’re looking at a Liberal win,’ Nanos says


“Right now, assuming that this current scenario upholds for the next two days, and there’s no significant movement, we’re looking at a Liberal win. Period. Full stop,” Nanos said on Friday’s edition of CTV’s Trend Line podcast. “Then the question is: ‘How big a win will it be?’” Nanos said the most likely outcome is that the Liberals will form a minority government; however, a Liberal majority is “not out of the realm of possibility” either. In fact, Nanos said he suspects the Liberals’ path to victory will be similar to the one that won them the government during the 2019 federal election. “In 2019, the Liberals lost the popular vote in a very, very tight race, but they actually won the government because of the distribution, the efficient distribution of seats that they had,” he explained. Examining the share of seats in the House of Commons the Liberals could win, Nanos said it looks like history is shaping up to repeat itself in 2021.

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