Colby Cosh: Is Canada on the verge of Toolemania?


Is it too soon to declare that the country is in the grip of Toolemania? Well, I’ll disappoint you: it is. But, you know, there is some weird stuff lurking in the crosstabs of the early polls for our federal election. On Sunday, Ekos published a new poll that created a stir because it gave the Conservatives a microscopic overall lead (literally two-fifths of a percentage point) in nationwide voting intention. Some stat freaks noticed a curious feature of the deeper numerical breakdowns. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, who is a full year younger than Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau but would probably admit to seeming 15 years older, has a not actually microscopic lead amongst voters aged 18-34 and a wider one in the 35-49 band. We all know the basic reason this is possible: the NDP and its leader Jagmeet Singh are, at the moment, doing pretty well in those groups, and taking votes away from the Liberals. In the 18-34 group, the NDP has 20 per cent support, the Liberals 28 per cent and the Conservatives 33 per cent, which is perhaps nothing to write home about. On Friday, Angus Reid brought out a new update that offered age-plus-gender breakdowns.

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