Conservatives gain as O’Toole’s momentum grows, Nanos survey suggests


The Liberals and Conservatives are now running in a statistical dead heat, as Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole continues to gain momentum as a candidate among initially hesitant Canadians, according to nightly tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. According to the latest nightly tracking ending Sunday and released Monday morning, ballot support for the Liberals sits at 32.5 per cent, while the Conservatives are at 31.4 per cent support, leaving a 1.1 percentage-point difference that is well within the poll’s margin of error of ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. “You’ve got to be disappointed if you happen to be a supporter of the Liberals, because the Liberals have gone from majority territory to minority territory to a dead heat, at least on the ballot numbers,” Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said on the latest episode of’s Trend Line podcast. “So now the race is on.” The result shows a continuing of Conservative gains in the early days of the campaign, which kicked off on Aug. 15. Liberal support stood at 33.4% in an Aug. 12 poll, while the Conservatives lagged at that point at 28.4%.

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