What’s a safe lead in the polls? History suggests Trudeau’s lead isn’t enough
The Liberals are leading in the polls and heading up a minority government that is fast approaching the end of its normal lifespan. This has fuelled speculation that they will try to cash-in on their strong poll numbers with a snap election. But if waiting until the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel gets a little brighter isn’t argument enough to hold off on drawing up the writs, the size of the Liberal lead should make Prime Minister Justin Trudeau think twice. According to the Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals hold a national lead of 5.5 percentage points over the Conservatives. That’s a solid advantage any party would be happy to take into election day. Historically, however, it isn’t wide enough for a party to be confident of victory before a campaign has even started.